ASML Says AI Chip Demand Could Outstrip Machine Supply Through 2028

ASML reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter performance on October 14, 2026 and said orders for machines used to manufacture advanced semiconductors could exceed its capacity through 2028. Reuters reported quarterly sales of about €11.7 billion and net profit around €4.96 billion, alongside a higher annual revenue forecast of €44 billion to €45 billion.

The company forecast fourth-quarter sales of roughly €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion and discussed increasing manufacturing capacity by about 30% in each of 2027 and 2028. Management nevertheless warned that equipment demand generated by AI data centers and semiconductor expansion could remain ahead of available output.

Lithography is one of the slowest and most specialized steps in the advanced chip supply chain. The availability of cutting-edge graphics processors depends not only on chip designers' plans but on fabrication equipment, cleanrooms, power, packaging and qualified suppliers. A shortage at any stage can constrain delivery.

Customers such as TSMC, Samsung and Intel face long investment cycles. New lithography machines are expensive, technically complex and take time to install. ASML can also upgrade the productivity of installed equipment, so capacity is not simply a count of newly shipped units.

The revenue outlook is a company forecast, not guaranteed realized sales. Buyers can delay projects, reduce orders, or change their technology roadmaps. Export restrictions involving equipment sold to China add another risk, and investors should distinguish equipment bookings from recognized revenue and customer profitability.

For AI developers this means GPU rentals, server availability and inference prices cannot be assumed to fall every quarter. Check actual service pricing and service-level guarantees rather than extrapolating hardware announcements. For investors, the more revealing measures will be backlog quality, installed-base service revenues, cash conversion and the durability of customer spending.