Token Unlock Calendars Can Matter More Than Social-Media Hype
Newly transferable token supply can affect liquidity without guaranteeing a selloff on the release date.
Some crypto projects allocate tokens to teams, early investors, foundations or community programs under scheduled vesting agreements. A token unlock changes how many units can circulate, but the market effect depends on who receives them and whether they sell. The scheduled quantity should be compared with average trading liquidity, not only total market capitalization.
Fully diluted valuation assumes a broader token supply than the amount currently circulating. Two assets with similar spot prices can therefore have very different supply schedules and future incentives. Market makers and long-term holders may also position ahead of an announced unlock, reducing its surprise impact.
Check verified contract schedules, release conditions, staking lockups and any amendments to vesting. Be skeptical of charts that ignore supply. This is a framework for assessing future issuance; it is not a prediction that a particular token will decline on its next unlock date.
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